Edmunds predicted continued growth in auto sales as the recession got worse. They were wrong.
This comes down to how accurate can Edmund's forecast buyer behavior in an unprecedented economic situation. The answer is not very well. Any forecast is based upon historical data, which is fine if history is a close match to current conditions.

Last year Edmund's forecasted that 2009 sales would be 13.7 million. In June they wrote "June Sales To Hit 10 Million SAAR; Detroit Share Improves, Edmunds.com Forecasts". This means that they readjusted their initial forecast by 30%.

If you google car sales forecasts, they've been constantly readjusted downward for the last few years. Any time you enter uncharted waters economically, you're going to have to adjust, because your numbers can't account for a situation that hasn't happened before.

However, what this report is trying to do is forecast a future that didn't happen and never will happen. We can never know how bad or good the numbers would have been because we don't have the historical data to accurately represent the recession or the effect such a program would have in such a recession.

What it comes down to is that this report is highly speculative and they are somewhat irresponsible for not providing some sort of disclaimer.

What about the $735 million a year in gas savings from the new vehicles that were purchased? What about the 300 gallons of gas saved per vehicle? What about the money that was spent in ailing economies (radio, tv, print, etc.) that went to Americans, who spent it on rent, mortgages, food, payroll, etc.?
I don't need a PhD or an MBA to know that Edmunds' numbers were fishy and their methodology was flawed.

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